Friday the 13th, Mortgages, and Bond Markets

David Bridges | June 14, 2025

In Western superstition, the number 13 has been considered unlucky. The exact origins are unknown, but there are several possibilities: 

  • In Norse myth, the trickster god, Loki, was the 13th guest at a dinner party of the gods and caused Balder, the god of joy and gladness, to die. 
  • In Christianity, there were 13 individuals at Jesus’s Last Supper. 
  • Some cite the mass arrest of the Knights Templar on Friday, October 13, 1307, as a possible origin. 

Either way, Friday the 13th is now a permanent fixture in modern culture with books, movies, and even a phobia: triskaidekaphobia, fear of the number 13. 

What does this have to do with mortgages and bond markets? Not much, but it is interesting.

Friday the 13th, this week, saw a massive attack by the nation of Israel against the nation of Iran. Military leaders and Iranian nuclear facilities seem to be the targets.

  • This led to a sharp rise in oil prices as this instability in the region can lead to oil shortages. This could be inflationary and lead to higher mortgage rates.
  • On the flip side, the instability could cause investors to fly to the safe haven of bonds to protect their investments from this instability. So far, that flight to safety hasn’t happened, and rates ended the week higher.

Speaking of inflation, this week saw two important inflation reports with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) releases. Both reports are released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and last week, we referenced the concerns with their recent methodology as explained in the Wall Street Journal. Both reports were very good news for interest rates, and we saw a rate improvement after last week’s rise due to the better-than-expected jobs report.

May CPI: Cooling Consumer Inflation

May CPI showed headline inflation rose 0.1%, lower than the 0.2% expected. Yearly, the inflation increased from 2.3% to 2.4%, below the 2.5% expected. More important is the Core rate, which strips out volatile food and energy prices. This increased by 0.1% for May, under the expected 0.3%.

The report also gives us the 3-month and 6-month “run rate.”  That is the shorter average of the most recent 3 and 6-month periods. Core inflation fell to 1.7% and 2.6% on the 3- and 6-month run rates, respectively. Remember, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) target for core inflation is 2%.

May PPI: Lower Wholesale Inflation

May PPI shows wholesale inflation and can indicate how much pricing pressure retailers are holding and not passing through to consumers. About 12% of PPI directly influences the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report. That is the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. PPI can be a good indicator of how PCE might look later this month. 

May headline PPI rose 0.1%, less than the 0.2% expected. Annually, it rose to 2.6%, meeting market expectations. Core PPI rose 0.1%, lower than the 0.3% expected. Annually, it was up to 3%, lower than expectations.

Jobless Claims: Labor Market Weakness Persists

Weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims came out, continuing to show weakness in the labor market, despite last week’s strong Jobs report.

  • Initial Claims remained at 248,000. This number has remained high. Earlier this year and last, we saw spikes close to this number, but now the market is seeing claims remain high without a pullback. 
  • For Continuing Claims, we saw 1.96 million. This is the third week above the important 1.9 million metric. It is the highest level seen since 2021.

We should remember that most states limit unemployment benefits to 26 weeks. Even though many people exceed this time and fall off the rolls, we are seeing even more being added, causing the increase. This is definitely not a strong labor indication.

Bond Auctions: Strong Demand for U.S. Debt

The 10-Year and 30-Year bond auctions were met with strong demand. This is indicative that our US debt is still in demand even after all the tariff uncertainty. A strong Treasury Bond is good for mortgage rates.

Looking Ahead

Next week is Fed meeting week. Here are some key reports and dates to stay aware of:

Monday, June 16

  • 20-Year Bond Auction

Tuesday, June 17

  • Retail Sales
  • NAHB Housing Market Index

Wednesday, June 18

  • Initial Jobless Claims
  • Housing Starts
  • Fed Meeting Results with SEP

Thursday, June 19

  • Market Closed for Juneteenth Holiday

The included content is intended for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as professional advice. Additional terms and conditions apply. Not all applicants will qualify. Consult with a finance professional for tax advice or a mortgage professional to address your mortgage questions or concerns. This is an advertisement. Prepared 06/12/2025.