Fed vs Trump
Trump and Powell’s Meeting Signals Tension
The war of words between President Trump and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell over the Fed’s hesitancy to cut rates came to an interesting head Thursday afternoon as the President and the Chairman met at the Fed’s headquarters to inspect the renovation currently in progress.
Compared to recent rhetoric, almost exclusively from the President, this exchange was almost friendly, albeit still cringeworthy. You can see part of this exchange here: Trump Meets with Powell at the Fed
Fed Likely to Hold Rates Next Week
Why is this even relevant to this economic analysis? Next week is Fed week, of course!
It is a virtual certainty that the Fed will leave its rate targets and not cut, despite what the President wants. Citing concerns about tariffs contributing to inflation, the Fed is in watch-and-wait mode.
The August 1st deadline for making trade deals is fast approaching. After that, tariff penalties go into effect for nations that haven’t made a deal.
Important deals have been inked in nations like Great Britain, the Philippines, Indonesia, and – importantly – Japan.
The other significant agreements to be watching for are with the European Union (EU), China, Canada, Mexico, and India.
Existing Home Sales Show Demand Pressure
Existing Home Sales fell 2.7% in June to an annualized pace of 3.9M units. This was worse than the 0.7% decline that was expected.
On the positive side, this also indicates significant pent-up demand. Once rates dip, there will be a surge in home sales.
The median home price rose 2.7% month over month and 2% annually to $435,300.
The number of active listings available to buy is about 1.08M, still about 11% below pre-pandemic levels, all the while our population has grown by 12 million people. This shows a continuing supply/demand imbalance.
On the New Home Sales front, signed contracts rose 0.6% to an annualized 627,000 units.
Jobless Claims Send Mixed Signals
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Initial Jobless Claims improved to a very low 217,000, which indicates fewer layoffs.
The Continuing Claims, people still on unemployment benefits, rose to 1.955M, the highest level since 2021.
It is clear that even though job losses may have slowed slightly, once a worker loses their job, it is very tough to find a new one.
Next Week: Major Economic Data Ahead
Next week will be a trifecta of extremely important economic news with the BLS Jobs report, PCE inflation (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge), and the Fed Meeting:
Tuesday, July 29:
- Case-Shiller Home Price Index
- FHFA Home Price Index
- Job Openings and Labor Turnovers (JOLTs)
Wednesday, July 30:
- ADP Employment Report
- GDP (Q2)
- Pending Home Sales
- Fed Meeting and Press Conference
Thursday, July 31:
- Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims
- Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
Friday, August 1:
- BLS Jobs Report.
The included content is intended for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as professional advice. Additional terms and conditions apply. Not all applicants will qualify. Consult with a finance professional for tax advice or a mortgage professional to address your mortgage questions or concerns. This is an advertisement. Prepared 07/24/2025.